周易预测中美关系的,周易预测不让干了

周易预测中美关系的,周易预测不让干了
预测未来10年中美关系1000字以内(英文)

University of Colorado department of political science professorPeter, Chris hayes in the Asian security magazine in 2006, 2 published the sino-us relations predict by 2023. Article puts forward their own unique prediction mod, from eight aspects, forecast the 2023 of china-u.s. Relations. The forecast, in 2023, sino-american bee rivals, and the possibility of 45% development have bee partners of possibilities for 35%. Two countries being Allies or hostile countries, the possibility is 5% and 15% respectively. According to the forecast, author of how to deal with the 2023 of sino-us relations and puts forward some specific policy remendations for the future, we think the sino-us relations problem also have certain reference value. This paper mainly introduces will content as follows.
Because through the mod of probability prediction of a prophecy made incredible, this paper develops a forecast mod, eight steps from the following eight aspects of sino-american relations predict, they are: (1) the structural strength, (2) driven prerequisites, (3) important uncertainties, (4), (5) the chance, (6), (7) index, (8) policy implications. We will this mod is applied to predict the sino-us relations in the middle. Specifically, this prediction in 2023, sino-american bee rivals, and the possibility of 45% development have bee partners of possibilities for 35%. Two countries being Allies or hostile countries, the possibility is 5% and 15% respectively.
A structural driving force
We will be divided into three levels of structural driving force analysis, system and national level and a personal level.
1 system level
Through analysis, we can be divided into global system level and regional system. The evolution of the global system will be the decisive factors to the growth of china-us relations. The global take posture (is YuWuLi tendency of unilateral/or multilateral/tend to diplomacy) has its unique importance. But America’s objective behavior of American power, China is in the direction of the benign or malignant opinions about the development of China’s foreign policy is decided, the main factor.
The east Asian regional order constantly evolving the essence of sino-us relations also affect the development of a main factor. In the near future, the Taiwan question is most likely cause conflict between the two countries. The Korean peninsula, and southeast Asia in sino-japanese relations for the future development of sino-us relations also has important influence. The north Korean nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula and the possibility to reunify China are faced with both opportunities and challenges. With the mid 1990s “China threat theory” in southeast Asia, China’s first perceive the security dilemma. In order to eliminate its southern neighbour, and the relationship between Japan and China have recently in southeast Asia pursues multilateralism policy.
2 the national level
Influence of sino-american relations between the two countries, national drive power mainly from the economic and political fields. In China, analysts agreed economic development is crucial for national security. China’s leadership will be economic strength is regarded as a country “, “core, prehensive national strength and worry about any significant economic turmoil will cause the legitimacy crisis, which threaten the stability of the regime. Therefore, China threat to the economic development of the external factors, especially sensitive. This includes globalization (it is China as the Chinese conspiracy), economic sanctions, developed countries such as the United States cyclical protectionist (trade sanctions threat) and from developing countries such as India’s petition (.).
Politically, the legitimacy of the munist party of China to keep potential threat is highly sensitive, it is understandable. Although these political threat, but they often derived from domestic and foreign thoughts and groups are concerned. In my opinion, corruption and nationalism is most likely to threaten munist party of China’s two political problems.
We can discover America’s Democrats and republicans toughen policies in China is also adopted to ease policy. Therefore, to predict the 2023 of American affairs and the relations between the two countries, the key is not so republican and democratic in 2006 and 2008 and 2010 and won the election, but by , what kind of Democratic Party (or can) congress and win the presidential election.
3 a personal level
Since the reform and opening-up policy “, since China’s foreign policy decision-making added many new important participant. They can be divided into three categories: the policy makers, policy advisor and public opinion.
(1) the policy makers (party leaders and officials)
President hu jintao and premier wen jiabao under the leadership of the new generation of leadership style of diplomatic anything different? Foreign ministers and other officials are increasingly towards professionalization, and the Chinese public transparency. The bureaucracy of what impact from foreign policy? The function of the people’s liberation army will be toward what direction? I think that China’s bureaucracy and army of specialization of the overall effect will ascend diplomatic policy formulation process, thereby reducing the institutionalization of the influence of individual leadership.
(2) the policy adviser (academic) and think-tank,
Because of China’s foreign policy is plex and national “forms” style of leadership institute and academics have bee increasingly prominent, the analyst for foreign policy formulation is playing a more and more important. China is now in certain countries, even the strategic policy, is increasingly open debate, foreign policy more openly discuss beneficial to launch the debate, also can further China agreed to policy.
(3) public opinion (Chinese folk and network media)
China’s foreign policy is to bee a “double game”, diplomats are concerned the nationalists on domestic; on the other hand, pay attention to its foreign counterparts. Wher in real life or on the network, the nationalist are being more and more actively participated in the national politics to maintain their rights. In the next ten years, China’s foreign ministry

预测中美关系未来,最好有理有据

在合作、矛盾中发展。高一必修二国家利益原理【懒得打】、鸦片战争充当帮凶，八国联军侵华战争侵略中国，二战于中国合作，中美建交，等等。

中美关系历史现状未来

中美两国，一个是世界上最大的发展中国家，拥有丰富的劳动力资源，明显的成本优势，广阔的市场和无可限量的发展潜力；另一个是拥有世界上最强大经济，科技实力的世界上最大的发达国家。中美两国的关系，直接影响到世界经济的发展。就中美当前的关系来说，是处于一个蜜月期，但问题与冲突同样存在。因为在国与国之间，没有永远的朋友，也没有永远的敌人，只有永远的利益。就中美目前的情况来看，还在意识形态，影响，经贸摩擦等方面存在问题。
在双方共同努力下，中美关系取得良好开局。当前，国际形势正处在复杂而深刻的变化之中，国际金融危机继续蔓延和深化，各种全球性挑战明显增多。中美无论是在应对国际金融危机冲击、推动恢复世界经济增长方面，还是在处理国际和地区热点问题、维护世界和平与安全方面，都拥有更加广泛的共同利益。当前中美关系正站在新的起点上，面临重要发展机遇。两国应该而且能够携手努力，共同建设21世纪积极合作全面的中美关系。
记不清到底是从哪里看到的一种观点：所谓国家关系，主要是指间关系，尤其涉及介入外交关系的某些人士：领袖人物、官员、外交人士，以及非官方的幕僚（主要是学术界人士）和新闻记者。两国间关系越多，相互依赖也就越深。然而不管深到何等程度，两国关系的实际发展总是无法预测的。于是自己也开始思考中美关系的种种现象与其背后的原因。经过在网上进行的有关资料的查找，我对中美关系的现状有了一些了解，并开始思索中美关系的未来。
从历史记载以及当今国际政坛的风云变幻来看，中美关系在近几十年内的确有了飞速的发展，但总体来说，双边关系仍然处于不平等的地位。在这个前提下，中美关系的现状更大程度上取决于美国的姿态。那么中美关系的现状究竟是什么情况呢？我认为，中美双方始终是一种既相互合作，又相互斗争的关系。
我国正处于经济相对快速发展的时期，因此我们渴望拥有一个和平的，繁荣的国际环境与经济环境，所以我们真诚地希望能够发展好中美关系，以展开更多经济，军事，文化，教育上的合作，以便发展自己。相比之下，美国处于一个世界超级大国的地位，其更关心维护国家利益和他的霸主地位，美国现阶段的对华战略方针应该在大体上维持现状，尽量将中国融入以美国为主导的国际轨道，同时防止中国作为一个大国的崛起。
事实上，美国从来也没有放松对中国的监视，震惊中外的中美撞机事件还令我记忆犹新，但更令我吃惊的是，美国事实上已经多次秘密派遣侦察机侵入我国领海上空进行间谍侦察，这些飞机利用先进的装备，在别国的阻截机达不到的高空飞行，并偷窥我国的重大机密。那架EP-3军事侦察机上竟然安装有世界上最先进的监听设备，能够根据监听到的人的声音判断说话人的身份。据说甚至能够分辨出是谁打的喷嚏。
以现实的观点来说，不管一国的意识形态如何，只要其国家实力强大，都会追求国家利益的最大化，追求其国家安全的最大化，而中国也不会例外。所以从国家利益至上的角度考虑，中美之间的国家战略是有结构性矛盾的，也就是说中美关系在合作中会有对抗，在竞争中又相互合作，但前提是中美均不打破目前的国际体系，中国也只有在当今的国际体系下才能够和平发展。
从长远的发展角度来看，中国社会内部面临的问题才是中国未来发展的挑战和巨大考验，如国内的产业升级，贫富差距，腐败，环境，改革等。中国只有处理好这些问题，才能维护国内的稳定，发展，而中共也只有处理好这些问题才能证明自身的合法性。外交是一国实力的体现，中国只有把眼前事情做好，同时兼顾长远的发展，中华民族的复兴才有望实现。新加坡内阁资政李光耀曾说：“新加坡在短时间内从第三世界发展为第一世界，但新加坡国土小，人口也少，这样的成就不算伟大，但当中国能从第三世界发展成第一世界的时候，那才是真正的伟大”

可以预测一下未来50年中国和美国各自的发展吗?

未来50年
中国将继续靠引进和购买，发展和繁荣自己的社会，改革开放政策不会改变；
美国则很难预测，因为美国的发展方向，和科技上是否出现重大突破有关，如果50年内美国研发出清洁的替代能源，美国有可能实现摆脱对石油的依赖梦想；
可以说，美国未来的发展方向，和未来科技的突破程度有直接关系，因此，运气成分很大，不象中国社会那么明确；

中美关系究竟会怎样

中美目前是世界上最重要的两个国家 有合作有斗争 关系好不了哪去 也坏不了哪去 但长远来看 两国开战的可能性还是蛮大的

中国思想史,《周易》论述《周易》中的哲学思想与中国人特有 的思维方式…

人世间的道理，可以告诉你事情的原委，事情的发展为什么会这样，你怎样做会有好的结果。